WASHINGTON — The US Division of Agriculture, in its Could 12 World Agricultural Provide and Demand Estimates report, made largely minor adjustments from April in its 2020-21 US sugar supply-and-demand forecasts, reducing the ending stocks-to-use ratio to 14.7% from 15.1% final month.
Home manufacturing in 2020-21 was forecast at a document 9,299,000 tons, down 45,000 tons from April as a 70,000-ton decline in cane sugar manufacturing, forecast at 4,181,000 tons, greater than offset a 25,000-ton enhance in beet sugar, forecast at 5,118,000 tons.
Modifications from April in import forecasts largely have been offsetting, with whole imports seen at 3,154,000 tons, down 2,000 tons from final month. Tariff-rate quota imports have been forecast at 1,673,000 tons, down 48,000 tons from April, with imports from Mexico at 981,000 tons, up 50,000 tons, reflecting the rise in Mexico’s “different” sugar export restrict introduced in April. Different program imports have been unchanged at 300,000 tons, with high-tier imports additionally unchanged at 200,000 tons.
There have been no adjustments from April in whole sugar use, forecast at 12,265,000 tons, together with exports at 35,000 tons, different at 105,000 tons and deliveries for meals at 12,125,000 tons.
Ending shares in 2020-21 have been forecast at 1,805,000 tons, down 43,000 tons from the April forecast and down 187,000 tons, or 12%, from 2019-20.
In its preliminary forecasts for the 2021-22 advertising and marketing 12 months, which begins Oct. 1, the USDA forecast home sugar manufacturing at a document 9,310,000 tons, up 11,000 tons from the present 12 months, together with beet sugar at 5,225,000 tons, up 107,000 tons, or 2.1%, and the second highest on document after 2017-18, and cane sugar at 4,085,000 tons, down 96,000 tons, or 2.3%, however nonetheless the third highest on document.
Whole imports have been forecast at 2,652,000 tons, together with TRQ imports at 1,387,000 tons, the minimal required beneath World Commerce Group commitments. Imports from Mexico have been forecast at 964,775 tons, with different program imports at 250,000 tons and high-tier imports at 50,000 tons.
Sugar use forecasts for 2021-22 all have been unchanged from 2020-21.
Ending shares have been forecast at 1,502,000 tons, with the ending stocks-to-use ratio at 12.25%, about the identical because the preliminary ratio in recent times.
For Mexico, the USDA forecast 2020-21 sugar manufacturing at 5,825,000 tonnes, precise weight, down 75,000 tonnes from April. Home use was forecast at 4,378,000 tonnes, down 67,000 tonnes, and exports have been forecast at 1,499,000 tonnes, up 7,000 tonnes. Ending shares have been forecast at 910,000 tonnes in 2020-21, down 16,000 tonnes from April.
Mexico’s preliminary 2021-22 sugar manufacturing was forecast at 5,809,000 tonnes, imports at 85,000 tonnes, exports at 1,524,000 tonnes and home use at 4,370,000 tonnes. Ending shares have been forecast at 910,000 tonnes, unchanged from the present 12 months. Ending shares for each years are equal to 2.5 months of forecast home use.